The host country explicitly authorizes international use.
02 / TECHNICAL BRIEF
CORSIA / MARKET INTELLIGENCE
How CORSIA creates demand for eligible carbon credits.
CARBON2GREEN / HSP
CORSIA requires airlines to address a defined share of international aviation emissions. Airlines therefore need credits that meet the programme's rules and can be cancelled by the applicable deadline.
HOW IT WORKS
Airlines measure emissions, calculate their obligation and cancel eligible units.
International flights cross jurisdictions, so ICAO established one common process: monitor eligible emissions, calculate each operator's obligation, acquire eligible emissions units and cancel them so they cannot be used again.
01FLYInternational operations
→02REPORTFuel and CO₂ data
→03CALCULATEOffsetting requirement
→04CANCELEligible emissions units
JUNE 2026 MARKET SNAPSHOT
Current estimates show
a large supply shortfall.
IATA's June 2026 central scenario placed cumulative first-phase demand at 213 MtCO₂ against 38 MtCO₂ of available CORSIA eligible emissions units, leaving an indicated shortfall of 175 MtCO₂.
213MtCO₂
CENTRAL DEMANDAIRLINE REQUIREMENT175MtCO₂ SHORTFALL
38MtCO₂ AVAILABLE
DEMAND FORECASTS
Estimates vary, but all show a much larger market after 2027.
Forecasts differ because they make different assumptions about traffic growth, participation, sustainable aviation fuel uptake and enforcement. This comparison reconstructs Abatable's November 2025 review of Abatable, ICAO and IATA scenarios.
MODELFIRST PHASE · 2024–26SECOND PHASE · 2027–35
200—220M
825—1,600M
100—150M
880—1,350M
146—246M
1,082—1,768M
Horizontal positions are normalized within each phase. Compare ranges within a column—not apparent lengths across columns. Later IATA updates moved the central first-phase estimate above 200M.
SOURCE · ABATABLE COMPARISON · UPDATED NOVEMBER 2025PRICE & AIRLINE EXPOSURE
A shortage of eligible units creates price and delivery risk.
There is no single “CORSIA price.” Auction outcomes, wholesale references and scenario models describe different instruments and dates. Credits that are ready, authorized and considered high quality may command a premium.
Guyana JREDD+ auction price cited by BNEF and Sylvera.
Scenario range: $15–53; earlier supply-crunch cases exceeded $60.
A modelled peak, followed by easing as supply expands—not a quoted market price.
MSCI 2024 PHASE-I RANGE$18—51
Projected CORSIA credit price per tCO₂e.
MODELED AIRLINE COST$1.9—7.0B
Total Phase-I cost across international airlines.
PASS-THROUGH SCENARIO<$2
Estimated average cost per ticket if passed through.
THE PHASES
More countries join the programme from 2027.
The pilot and first phases use voluntary State participation. The second phase introduces wider participation criteria and exemptions. Forecasts for cumulative second-phase demand range from hundreds of millions to well over one billion units.
Pilot phase
No offsetting requirement accrued because sector growth factors were zero.
First phase
Current compliance period. Eligible units must be cancelled by 31 January 2028.
Second phase
Participation expands under ICAO criteria, with defined exemptions.
THE BROADER ARTICLE 6 MARKET
Airlines will compete with other buyers for Article 6 credits.
Governments, regulated companies and voluntary buyers also seek correspondingly adjusted, high-integrity supply. MSCI's August 2026 analysis points to future EU demand of about 25 Mt/year for international credits from 2036, with draft CBAM provisions potentially bringing forward up to 70 Mt/year.
AIRLINE-SIDE MRV
Before offsetting comes measurement.
Aircraft operators monitor fuel use through an approved Emissions Monitoring Plan, compile annual emissions, and have reports checked by an independent verification body before submission to the administering State.
Record fuel use or apply the ICAO estimation tool where permitted.
Aggregate eligible international-flight emissions in the required format.
Independent verification checks the report before State submission.
WHAT MAKES A UNIT ELIGIBLE
A credit must meet CORSIA rules before an airline can use it.
A unit may represent one tonne of CO₂ reduced, avoided or removed. For CORSIA use, it must also come from an ICAO-approved programme and meet the applicable scope, vintage, activity, host-country authorization and double-claiming requirements.
Approved programme
ICAO's Council determines the programmes and unit types eligible for each compliance period.
Applicable scope
The activity, methodology, unit vintage and crediting period must fall within scope.
Host authorization
The host country authorizes use and addresses double claiming through Article 6 accounting.
Registry cancellation
The airline cancels eligible units and reports the cancellation for compliance.
WHAT THE PROJECT MUST COMPLETE
Several steps separate a peatland project from a CORSIA-eligible unit.
RIGHTSBASELINEMETHODOLOGYVALIDATIONMONITORINGVERIFICATIONISSUANCEAUTHORIZATION
A problem at any stage can change how many units are produced, when they are available, whether they are eligible—or whether they can be issued at all.